Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 2 · 16:30 · Arsenal vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 56%
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Arsenal56%——
OursMarket
Draw21%——
OursMarket
Manchester City23%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Jan 29 · at Girona (A)2-1
- Jan 25 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Jan 22 · v Dinamo Zagreb (H)3-0
- Jan 18 · v Aston Villa (H)2-2
- Jan 15 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
Manchester City
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Jan 29 · v Club Brugge (H)3-1
- Jan 25 · v Chelsea (H)3-1
- Jan 22 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-4
- Jan 19 · at Ipswich Town (A)6-0
- Jan 14 · at Brentford (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-1 | 5-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 4.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 29% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.