EFL Cup (England) · Sun, Mar 22 · 16:30 · Arsenal vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 55%
A 55% home win. The market says 42%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal55%42%+14
OursMarket
Draw21%29%−7
OursMarket
Manchester City23%30%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 70% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 58% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 71% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 59% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Mar 17 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-0
- Mar 14 · v Everton (H)2-0
- Mar 11 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · at Mansfield Town (A)2-1
- Mar 4 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-0
Manchester City
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Mar 17 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Mar 14 · at West Ham United (A)1-1
- Mar 11 · at Real Madrid (A)0-3
- Mar 7 · at Newcastle United (A)3-1
- Mar 4 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.