Community Shield (England) · Sun, Aug 16 · 14:00 · Arsenal vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 48%
A 48% away win. The market says 35%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal29%37%−7
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Manchester City48%35%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 65% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 63% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 51% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- May 30 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-1
- May 30 · at PSG (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-1
- May 18 · v Burnley (H)1-0
- May 10 · at West Ham United (A)1-0
Manchester City
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- May 24 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
- May 19 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
- May 16 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
- May 13 · v Crystal Palace (H)3-0
- May 9 · v Brentford (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.