Premier League (England) · Sun, Jan 25 · 16:30 · Arsenal vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 55%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal55%61%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%23%+1
OursMarket
Manchester United22%17%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 56% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 54% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 83% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 39% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 78% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Jan 20 · at Inter (A)3-1
- Jan 17 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-0
- Jan 14 · at Chelsea (A)3-2
- Jan 11 · at Portsmouth (A)4-1
- Jan 8 · v Liverpool (H)0-0
Manchester United
DrawDrawDrawLossWin
- Jan 17 · v Manchester City (H)2-0
- Jan 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-2
- Jan 7 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Jan 4 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
- Dec 30 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.