Women's Super League (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 16:30 · Arsenal vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 70%
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal70%68%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Manchester United13%13%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 87% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 32% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 84% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinDraw
- Sep 13 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-0
Manchester United
LossLoss
- Sep 13 · v Chelsea FC (H)0-5
- Sep 4 · at London City Lionesses (A)1-2