Premier League (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 16:30 · Arsenal vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 60%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal60%66%−7
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Newcastle United19%14%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 60% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 86% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 34% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 83% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Apr 19 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- Apr 15 · v Sporting CP (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Apr 7 · at Sporting CP (A)1-0
- Apr 4 · at Southampton (A)1-2
Newcastle United
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 18 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Apr 12 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-2
- Mar 22 · v Sunderland (H)1-2
- Mar 18 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-7
- Mar 14 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.