Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 15:00 · Arsenal vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 66%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 38%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal66%76%−10
OursMarket
Draw21%16%+5
OursMarket
Sunderland13%8%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 53% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 38% | +19 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 92% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 24% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 84% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 91% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinLossWinWinWin
- Feb 3 · v Chelsea (H)1-0
- Jan 31 · at Leeds United (A)4-0
- Jan 28 · v Kairat (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · v Manchester United (H)2-3
- Jan 20 · at Inter (A)3-1
Sunderland
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Feb 2 · v Burnley (H)3-0
- Jan 24 · at West Ham United (A)1-3
- Jan 17 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-1
- Jan 7 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- Jan 4 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.