Premier League (England) · Sun, Nov 23 · 16:30 · Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 59%
A 19% away win. The market says 12%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal59%67%−8
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur19%12%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 88% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 33% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 84% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 8 · at Sunderland (A)2-2
- Nov 4 · at Slavia Praha (A)3-0
- Nov 1 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Oct 29 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-0
- Oct 26 · v Crystal Palace (H)1-0
Tottenham Hotspur
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Nov 8 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Nov 4 · v FC København (H)4-0
- Nov 1 · v Chelsea (H)0-1
- Oct 29 · at Newcastle United (A)0-2
- Oct 26 · at Everton (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-0 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.