Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 13 · 20:00 · Arsenal vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 68%
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Arsenal68%85%−17
OursMarket
Draw19%11%+8
OursMarket
Wolverhampton Wanderers13%4%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 63% | −15 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 96% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 15% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 89% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 96% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Arsenal
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Dec 10 · at Club Brugge (A)3-0
- Dec 6 · at Aston Villa (A)1-2
- Dec 3 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Nov 30 · at Chelsea (A)1-1
- Nov 26 · v FC Bayern München (H)3-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Dec 8 · v Manchester United (H)1-4
- Dec 3 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-1
- Nov 30 · at Aston Villa (A)0-1
- Nov 22 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-2
- Nov 8 · at Chelsea (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Arsenal | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 0-1-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Arsenal form·Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Head-to-head record