Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 16:45 · AS Monaco vs Górnik Zabrze
Likeliest: AS Monaco win · 51%
A 25% away win. The market says 13%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AS Monaco51%67%−16
OursMarket
Draw24%19%+5
OursMarket
Górnik Zabrze25%13%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 62% | −25 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 87% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 33% | +16 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 81% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 83% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AS Monaco
WinWin
- Aug 23 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)3-2
Górnik Zabrze
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 20 · v AS Monaco (H)2-3
- Aug 16 · v Wisła Kraków (H)2-1
- Aug 13 · v Ferencváros TC (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at Radomiak Radom (A)3-1
- Aug 5 · at Ferencváros TC (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | AS Monaco | Górnik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 50% |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.