Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 · AS Monaco vs Lille
Likeliest: AS Monaco win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AS Monaco44%44%0
OursMarket
Draw28%28%+1
OursMarket
Lille27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AS Monaco
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Lorient (A)0-1
- Oct 15 · at CSKA Sofia (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Toulouse (H)2-2
- Sep 18 · v RC Lens (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at RC Strasbourg (A)1-1
Lille
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Stade Brestois (H)1-1
- Oct 13 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Le Havre (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Nice (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Troyes (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | AS Monaco | Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 44% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.