Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Aug 30 · 18:45 · AS Monaco vs Olympique de Marseille
Likeliest: AS Monaco win · 44%
We make it 69% for both teams to score. The market says 63%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AS Monaco44%40%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Olympique de Marseille33%35%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 61% | −20 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 63% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 60% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 53% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AS Monaco
WinWinWin
- Aug 27 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)4-1
- Aug 23 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Górnik Zabrze (A)3-2
Olympique de Marseille
Win
- Aug 21 · v RC Strasbourg (H)4-0