Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:45 · AS Monaco vs RC Lens
Likeliest: AS Monaco win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AS Monaco46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
RC Lens28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AS Monaco
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at RC Strasbourg (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · at PSG (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Olympique de Marseille (H)2-0
- Aug 27 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)4-1
- Aug 23 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
RC Lens
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 13 · at Le Mans (A)2-2
- Sep 10 · at SK Slavia Praha (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · v Lorient (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at RC Strasbourg (A)1-2
- Aug 22 · v Auxerre (H)5-2
| Last 10 games | AS Monaco | RC Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-0 | 3-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.