Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Oct 10 · 18:45 · AS Monaco vs Toulouse
Likeliest: AS Monaco win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AS Monaco61%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Toulouse17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AS Monaco
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 18 · v RC Lens (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at RC Strasbourg (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · at PSG (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Olympique de Marseille (H)2-0
- Aug 27 · v Górnik Zabrze (H)4-1
Toulouse
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 19 · v Le Havre (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Lorient (A)2-2
- Sep 3 · v Lille (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Stade Brestois (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | AS Monaco | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-0 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.