Niké Liga (Slovakia) · Sat, Sep 12 · 16:00 · AS Trenčín vs DAC 1904
Likeliest: DAC 1904 win · 58%
We make it 70% for both teams to score. The market says 59%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
AS Trenčín19%21%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%22%+2
OursMarket
DAC 190458%57%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 63% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 59% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 27% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 3.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
AS Trenčín
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 5 · at MFK Zemplín Michalovce (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v MFK Ružomberok (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · v FC Spartak Trnava (H)0-4
- Aug 15 · at FK Železiarne Podbrezová (A)1-2
- Aug 1 · at FC Košice (A)3-3
DAC 1904
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · v ŠK Slovan Bratislava (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at MFK Skalica (A)6-1
- Aug 22 · v FK Železiarne Podbrezová (H)5-0
- Aug 16 · at KFC Komárno (A)3-0
- Aug 13 · v FC Twente (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | AS Trenčín | DAC 1904 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.