3rd Division, Group 3 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 19 · 17:00 · Asane Fotball 2 vs Varegg
Likeliest: Varegg win · 37%
A 27% draw. The market says 19%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Asane Fotball 236%51%−15
OursMarket
Draw27%19%+8
OursMarket
Varegg37%30%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 70% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 49% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 81% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 63% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Asane Fotball 2
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Vard Haugesund (H)1-5
- Oct 5 · at Fana (A)2-5
- Sep 26 · v Førde (H)2-2
- Sep 21 · at Os TF (A)2-3
- Sep 14 · v SK Brann II (H)1-2
Varegg
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Stord (H)2-3
- Oct 3 · at SK Brann II (A)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Os TF (H)4-2
- Sep 19 · at Gneist (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Sogndal IL II (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Asane Fotball 2 | Varegg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.