1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · Åsane vs Sogndal IL
Likeliest: Sogndal IL win · 45%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Åsane30%32%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Sogndal IL45%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 69% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Åsane
DrawDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Strømsgodset (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Bryne FK (H)0-4
- Sep 16 · at Sandviken (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Ranheim IL (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Hødd IL (H)2-2
Sogndal IL
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Sotra (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Strømmen IF (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Haugesund (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Strømsgodset (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Åsane | Sogndal IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-3 | 1-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.