1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00 · Åsane vs Stabæk Fotball
Likeliest: Stabæk Fotball win · 73%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 72% for both teams to score. The market says 64%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Åsane11%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%17%−1
OursMarket
Stabæk Fotball73%68%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 64% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 28% | 32% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Åsane
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Strømmen IF (A)1-6
- Oct 11 · v Sogndal IL (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · at Strømsgodset (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Bryne FK (H)0-4
- Sep 16 · at Sandviken (A)2-2
Stabæk Fotball
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 14 · v Sandnes Ulf (H)4-1
- Oct 11 · v Strømmen IF (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · at Haugesund (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Sogndal IL (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Pors Grenland (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Åsane | Stabæk Fotball |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-3 | 3-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.