3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 · Asker vs Bærum SK
Likeliest: Asker win · 52%
A 24% away win. The market says 17%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Asker52%64%−12
OursMarket
Draw24%19%+6
OursMarket
Bærum SK24%17%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 77% | −26 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 36% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 81% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 79% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Asker
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Grei (A)3-4
- Sep 26 · v Nordstrand (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Gamle Oslo FK (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v KFUM Oslo II (H)7-2
- Sep 5 · at Ullern (A)6-2
Bærum SK
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 4 · v Ready (H)1-2
- Oct 1 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)1-5
- Sep 26 · at Vålerenga IF II (A)0-2
- Sep 19 · v FK Union Carl Berner (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Lokomotiv Oslo (A)2-5
| Last 10 games | Asker | Bærum SK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-1 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.