3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Wed, Oct 14 · 16:00 · Asker vs Frigg
Likeliest: Asker win · 81%
Likely score: 4–1
A 81% home win. The market says 76%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Asker81%76%+4
OursMarket
Draw10%13%−3
OursMarket
Frigg9%11%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 96% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82% | 83% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 81% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 24% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 90% | 87% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 4.5 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Asker
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Bærum SK (H)4-2
- Oct 3 · at Grei (A)3-4
- Sep 26 · v Nordstrand (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Gamle Oslo FK (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v KFUM Oslo II (H)7-2
Frigg
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Vålerenga IF II (A)1-4
- Oct 3 · v Gamle Oslo FK (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at FK Union Carl Berner (A)2-6
- Sep 19 · v Konnerud IL (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Heming (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Asker | Frigg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-0 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.