Liga 1 (Peru) · Wed, Sep 23 · 20:00 · Asociación Deportiva Tarma vs Cienciano
Likeliest: Cienciano win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Asociación Deportiva Tarma29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Cienciano41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Asociación Deportiva Tarma
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at Alianza Lima (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Melgar (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v Sport Huancayo (H)1-3
- Aug 22 · at ADC Juan Pablo II (A)1-5
- Aug 15 · v Alianza Atlético de Sullana (H)1-1
Cienciano
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 18 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FC Cajamarca (A)5-2
- Aug 31 · v Cusco FC (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Sport Boys (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Asociación Deportiva Tarma | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-1-4 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.