Premier League (England) · Sun, Nov 9 · 14:00 · Aston Villa vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Aston Villa63%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth15%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinLossWinLossWin
- Nov 6 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)2-0
- Nov 1 · at Liverpool (A)0-2
- Oct 26 · v Manchester City (H)1-0
- Oct 23 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-2
- Oct 19 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
AFC Bournemouth
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Nov 2 · at Manchester City (A)1-3
- Oct 26 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-0
- Oct 18 · at Crystal Palace (A)3-3
- Oct 3 · v Fulham (H)3-1
- Sep 27 · at Leeds United (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.