Premier League (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 12:30 · Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 42%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa33%23%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Arsenal42%50%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 46% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 77% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 31% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 3 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)4-3
- Nov 30 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-0
- Nov 27 · v Young Boys (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Leeds United (A)2-1
- Nov 9 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-0
Arsenal
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Dec 3 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Nov 30 · at Chelsea (A)1-1
- Nov 26 · v FC Bayern München (H)3-1
- Nov 23 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)4-1
- Nov 8 · at Sunderland (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.