Premier League (England) · Mon, Aug 31 · 19:00 · Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 42%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa42%15%+27
OursMarket
Draw27%23%+4
OursMarket
Arsenal31%62%−31
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 53% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 38% | +31 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 85% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 19% | +38 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 23 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-4
- Aug 12 · at PSG (A)1-2
- May 24 · at Manchester City (A)2-1
- May 20 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-0
- May 15 · v Liverpool (H)4-2
Arsenal
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Aug 21 · v Coventry City (H)3-0
- Aug 16 · v Manchester City (H)3-0
- May 30 · at PSG (A)1-1
- May 30 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.