Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Apr 16 · 19:00 · Aston Villa vs Bologna
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 53%
A 23% away win. The market says 17%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa53%61%−8
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+2
OursMarket
Bologna23%17%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 39% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 79% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Apr 12 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- Apr 9 · at Bologna (A)3-1
- Mar 22 · v West Ham United (H)2-0
- Mar 19 · v LOSC Lille (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Manchester United (A)1-3
Bologna
WinLossWinLossWin
- Apr 12 · v Lecce (H)2-0
- Apr 9 · v Aston Villa (H)1-3
- Apr 5 · at Cremonese (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Lazio (H)0-2
- Mar 19 · at Roma (A)4-3
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.