Premier League (England) · Sun, Feb 1 · 14:00 · Aston Villa vs Brentford
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 46%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa46%44%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−2
OursMarket
Brentford28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 61% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinLossWinWinWin
- Jan 29 · v Salzburg (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Newcastle United (A)2-0
- Jan 22 · at Fenerbahçe (A)1-0
- Jan 18 · v Everton (H)0-1
- Jan 10 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
Brentford
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Jan 25 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-2
- Jan 17 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Jan 10 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-0
- Jan 7 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
- Jan 4 · at Everton (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.