Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Aston Villa vs Brentford
Likeliest: Brentford win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Brentford38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)3-2
- Sep 16 · at Coventry City (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Nottingham Forest (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at Club Brugge KV (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Hull City (A)0-0
Brentford
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 18 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
- Sep 15 · at Reading (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.