Premier League (England) · Wed, Feb 11 · 19:30 · Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 50%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa50%48%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 54% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 57% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Feb 7 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · v Brentford (H)0-1
- Jan 29 · v Salzburg (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Newcastle United (A)2-0
- Jan 22 · at Fenerbahçe (A)1-0
Brighton & Hove Albion
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Feb 8 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-1
- Jan 31 · v Everton (H)1-1
- Jan 24 · at Fulham (A)1-2
- Jan 19 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · at Manchester United (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Aston Villa form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record