Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 22 · 17:30 · Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Aston Villa47%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Chelsea29%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Feb 19 · v Liverpool (H)2-2
- Feb 15 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-1
- Feb 9 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
- Feb 1 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-2
- Jan 29 · v Celtic (H)4-2
Chelsea
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Feb 14 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-3
- Feb 8 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-2
- Feb 3 · v West Ham United (H)2-1
- Jan 25 · at Manchester City (A)1-3
- Jan 20 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 88% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 13% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.