Premier League (England) · Wed, Mar 4 · 19:30 · Aston Villa vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 40%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa40%35%+4
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Chelsea37%38%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 60% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 48% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Feb 27 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-2
- Feb 21 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Newcastle United (H)1-3
- Feb 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-0
- Feb 7 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
Chelsea
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Mar 1 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Feb 21 · v Burnley (H)1-1
- Feb 13 · at Hull City (A)4-0
- Feb 10 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
- Feb 7 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.