Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Oct 4 · 13:00 · Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa54%54%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Crystal Palace22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
DrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 27 · at Tottenham FC (A)0-4
- Sep 20 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Manchester City (H)1-4
- Sep 5 · at Chelsea FC (A)1-1
Crystal Palace
WinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 27 · at Birmingham City W.F.C. (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · v Tottenham FC (H)0-7
- Sep 13 · at Arsenal (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Everton (H)1-0