Premier League (England) · Sun, Jan 18 · 16:30 · Aston Villa vs Everton
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa61%58%+3
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Everton18%18%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Jan 10 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Jan 7 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Jan 3 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-1
- Dec 30 · at Arsenal (A)1-4
- Dec 27 · at Chelsea (A)2-1
Everton
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Jan 7 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · v Brentford (H)2-4
- Dec 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-0
- Dec 27 · at Burnley (A)0-0
- Dec 20 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.