Premier League (England) · Wed, Feb 19 · 19:30 · Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Aston Villa50%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Liverpool25%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Feb 15 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-1
- Feb 9 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)2-1
- Feb 1 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-2
- Jan 29 · v Celtic (H)4-2
- Jan 26 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
Liverpool
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Feb 16 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · at Wanderers (A)1-1
- Feb 12 · at Everton (A)2-2
- Feb 9 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)0-1
- Feb 8 · v Miramar Misiones (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 2-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.