Premier League (England) · Fri, May 15 · 19:00 · Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 32%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa61%32%+28
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
Liverpool18%42%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 65% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 58% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 68% | −28 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 43% | +34 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
LossLossLossWinDraw
- May 10 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- May 7 · v Nottingham Forest (H)4-0
- May 3 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-2
- Apr 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Fulham (A)0-1
Liverpool
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- May 9 · v Chelsea (H)1-1
- May 8 · at Wanderers (A)0-1
- May 3 · at Manchester United (A)2-3
- May 2 · v Danubio (H)3-0
- Apr 25 · at Juventud (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.