Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Mar 19 · 20:00 · Aston Villa vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 46%
A 30% away win. The market says 19%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa46%57%−12
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
LOSC Lille30%19%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 81% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 43% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 75% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 15 · at Manchester United (A)1-3
- Mar 12 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-0
- Mar 4 · v Chelsea (H)1-4
- Feb 27 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-2
- Feb 21 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
LOSC Lille
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Mar 15 · at Rennes (A)2-1
- Mar 12 · v Aston Villa (H)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Lorient (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Nantes (H)1-0
- Feb 26 · at Crvena Zvezda (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.