Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Sep 13 · 17:30 · Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 76%
A 76% away win. The market says 71%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa9%11%−3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−2
OursMarket
Manchester City76%71%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 24% | 29% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 91% | 89% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 10% | 14% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
Draw
- Sep 5 · at Chelsea FC (A)1-1
Manchester City
Win
- Sep 6 · v Birmingham City W.F.C. (H)3-1