Premier League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Manchester City win · 59%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa18%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Manchester City59%55%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 45% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 28% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-0
- Oct 14 · v Fenerbahçe (H)6-0
- Oct 10 · v Brentford (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)3-2
- Sep 16 · at Coventry City (A)3-1
Manchester City
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Ipswich Town (H)3-2
- Oct 14 · v PSG (H)2-4
- Oct 11 · at Liverpool (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Sunderland (H)5-3
- Sep 17 · v Norwich City (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.