Premier League (England) · Sun, Dec 21 · 16:30 · Aston Villa vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 51%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa51%45%+6
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Manchester United24%29%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 58% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 71% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 55% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 60% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 14 · at West Ham United (A)3-2
- Dec 11 · at Basel (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Arsenal (H)2-1
- Dec 3 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)4-3
- Nov 30 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-0
Manchester United
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Dec 15 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-4
- Dec 8 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)4-1
- Dec 4 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Nov 30 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-1
- Nov 24 · v Everton (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.