FA Cup (England) · Sat, Feb 14 · 17:45 · Aston Villa vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 43%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa52%43%+9
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Newcastle United25%31%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 57% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 58% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-0
- Feb 7 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · v Brentford (H)0-1
- Jan 29 · v Salzburg (H)3-2
- Jan 25 · at Newcastle United (A)2-0
Newcastle United
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Feb 10 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-1
- Feb 7 · v Brentford (H)2-3
- Feb 4 · at Manchester City (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · at Liverpool (A)1-4
- Jan 28 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.