Premier League (England) · Sat, Jan 3 · 12:30 · Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 48%
A 27% away win. The market says 23%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa48%51%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest27%23%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 77% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 69% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 30 · at Arsenal (A)1-4
- Dec 27 · at Chelsea (A)2-1
- Dec 21 · v Manchester United (H)2-1
- Dec 14 · at West Ham United (A)3-2
- Dec 11 · at Basel (A)2-1
Nottingham Forest
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Dec 30 · v Everton (H)0-2
- Dec 27 · v Manchester City (H)1-2
- Dec 22 · at Fulham (A)0-1
- Dec 14 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-0
- Dec 11 · at FC Utrecht (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.