Europa League (Europe) · Thu, May 7 · 19:00 · Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 43%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa43%55%−12
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+2
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest31%21%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 51% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 79% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 45% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 73% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinWinLossLossLoss
- May 3 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)1-2
- Apr 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Fulham (A)0-1
- Apr 19 · v Sunderland (H)4-3
- Apr 16 · v Bologna (H)4-0
Nottingham Forest
WinWinWinWinWin
- May 4 · at Chelsea (A)3-1
- Apr 30 · v Aston Villa (H)1-0
- Apr 24 · at Sunderland (A)5-0
- Apr 19 · v Burnley (H)4-1
- Apr 16 · v Porto (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.