FA Cup (England) · Sun, Feb 9 · 17:35 · Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Aston Villa46%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur26%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Feb 1 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-2
- Jan 29 · v Celtic (H)4-2
- Jan 26 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Jan 21 · at Monaco (A)0-1
- Jan 18 · at Arsenal (A)2-2
Tottenham Hotspur
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 6 · at Liverpool (A)0-4
- Feb 2 · at Brentford (A)2-0
- Jan 30 · v Elfsborg (H)3-0
- Jan 26 · v Leicester City (H)1-2
- Jan 23 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-2 | 4-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.