Premier League (England) · Sun, May 3 · 18:00 · Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 57%
A 57% home win. The market says 45%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa57%45%+12
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur21%28%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 55% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 72% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 55% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 61% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 30 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Fulham (A)0-1
- Apr 19 · v Sunderland (H)4-3
- Apr 16 · v Bologna (H)4-0
- Apr 12 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
Tottenham Hotspur
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Apr 25 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)2-2
- Apr 12 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Mar 22 · v Nottingham Forest (H)0-3
- Mar 18 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.