Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 21 · 19:00 · Aston Villa vs Viking FK
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 79%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 79% for the home win. The market says 76%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa79%76%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−1
OursMarket
Viking FK5%7%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Newcastle United (A)1-0
- Oct 14 · v Fenerbahçe (H)6-0
- Oct 10 · v Brentford (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)3-2
- Sep 16 · at Coventry City (A)3-1
Viking FK
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Fredrikstad FK (H)3-2
- Oct 13 · v FC Bayern München (H)3-3
- Oct 9 · at SK Brann (A)2-0
- Oct 1 · at Madla (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Lillestrøm SK (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Viking FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.