Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 22 · 14:15 · Aston Villa vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 48%
A 29% away win. The market says 21%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa48%54%−5
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
West Ham United29%21%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 55% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 72% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
LossLossWinLossWin
- Mar 19 · v LOSC Lille (H)2-0
- Mar 15 · at Manchester United (A)1-3
- Mar 12 · at LOSC Lille (A)1-0
- Mar 4 · v Chelsea (H)1-4
- Feb 27 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-2
West Ham United
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Mar 14 · v Manchester City (H)1-1
- Mar 4 · at Fulham (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Liverpool (A)2-5
- Feb 21 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)0-0
- Feb 14 · at Burton Albion (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.