Premier League (England) · Sun, Nov 30 · 14:05 · Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 63%
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Aston Villa63%63%−1
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−2
OursMarket
Wolverhampton Wanderers17%15%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 85% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 37% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 81% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Aston Villa
LossWinWinWinWin
- Nov 27 · v Young Boys (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Leeds United (A)2-1
- Nov 9 · v AFC Bournemouth (H)4-0
- Nov 6 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)2-0
- Nov 1 · at Liverpool (A)0-2
Wolverhampton Wanderers
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 22 · v Crystal Palace (H)0-2
- Nov 8 · at Chelsea (A)0-3
- Nov 1 · at Fulham (A)0-3
- Oct 29 · v Chelsea (H)3-4
- Oct 26 · v Burnley (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Aston Villa | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Aston Villa form·Wolverhampton Wanderers form·Head-to-head record