Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 17 · 16:00 · Atalanta vs Bologna
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 55%
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta55%58%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Bologna21%20%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 58% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 57% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 42% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 74% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- May 10 · at AC Milan (A)3-2
- May 2 · v Genoa (H)0-0
- Apr 27 · at Cagliari (A)2-3
- Apr 22 · v Lazio (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Roma (A)1-1
Bologna
LossLossLossDrawWin
- May 11 · at Napoli (A)3-2
- May 3 · v Cagliari (H)0-0
- Apr 25 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Apr 16 · at Aston Villa (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.