Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Aug 31 · 18:45 · Atalanta vs Bologna
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 54%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta54%51%+3
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Bologna21%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 49% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 49% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 68% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Aug 27 · at Hapoel Tel Aviv (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Aug 20 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)0-0
- May 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Bologna (H)0-1
Bologna
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 24 · v Lazio (H)0-1
- May 23 · v Inter (H)3-3
- May 17 · at Atalanta (A)1-0
- May 11 · at Napoli (A)3-2
- May 3 · v Cagliari (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 8-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.