Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 13 · 19:45 · Atalanta vs Cagliari
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 47%
A 30% away win. The market says 11%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta47%70%−23
OursMarket
Draw23%19%+4
OursMarket
Cagliari30%11%+20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 89% | −19 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 30% | +23 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 87% | −26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
WinWinWinLossWin
- Dec 9 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-3
- Dec 3 · v Genoa (H)4-0
- Nov 30 · v Fiorentina (H)2-0
- Nov 26 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-0
Cagliari
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Dec 7 · v Roma (H)1-0
- Dec 3 · at Napoli (A)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Juventus (A)1-2
- Nov 22 · v Genoa (H)3-3
- Nov 8 · at Como (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.