Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Nov 30 · 17:00 · Atalanta vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 47%
We make it 66% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta47%57%−10
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−3
OursMarket
Fiorentina32%19%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 51% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 81% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 43% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 75% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
LossWinLossLossWin
- Nov 26 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Napoli (A)1-3
- Nov 9 · v Sassuolo (H)0-3
- Nov 5 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-0
- Nov 1 · at Udinese (A)0-1
Fiorentina
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 27 · v AEK Athens (H)0-1
- Nov 22 · v Juventus (H)1-1
- Nov 9 · at Genoa (A)2-2
- Nov 6 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
- Nov 2 · v Lecce (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.